Uncertainty, Complexity and Constraints: How Do We Robustly Assess Biological Responses under a Rapidly Changing Climate?
نویسندگان
چکیده
How robust is our assessment of impacts to ecosystems and species from a rapidly changing climate during the 21st century? We examine challenges uncertainty, complexity constraints associated with applying projections understanding future biological responses. This includes an evaluation how incorporate uncertainty different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios models, spatiotemporal scales resolution data into impact assessments. describe identifying relevant metrics for assessments evaluate usefulness limitations methodologies change both quantitative qualitative discuss importance incorporating extreme events their stochastic tendencies in assessing ecological transformation, provide recommendations better integration complex climate–ecological interactions at scales. further recognize compounding nature when accounting limited between processes. Given inherent processes climate, we recommend integrating modeling expert elicitation diverse disciplines experiential recent climate-driven develop more responses under change. Inherently systems also opportunity wide-ranging strategies that resource managers can employ prepare future.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Climate
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['2225-1154']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9120177