Uncertainty, Complexity and Constraints: How Do We Robustly Assess Biological Responses under a Rapidly Changing Climate?

نویسندگان

چکیده

How robust is our assessment of impacts to ecosystems and species from a rapidly changing climate during the 21st century? We examine challenges uncertainty, complexity constraints associated with applying projections understanding future biological responses. This includes an evaluation how incorporate uncertainty different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios models, spatiotemporal scales resolution data into impact assessments. describe identifying relevant metrics for assessments evaluate usefulness limitations methodologies change both quantitative qualitative discuss importance incorporating extreme events their stochastic tendencies in assessing ecological transformation, provide recommendations better integration complex climate–ecological interactions at scales. further recognize compounding nature when accounting limited between processes. Given inherent processes climate, we recommend integrating modeling expert elicitation diverse disciplines experiential recent climate-driven develop more responses under change. Inherently systems also opportunity wide-ranging strategies that resource managers can employ prepare future.

برای دانلود باید عضویت طلایی داشته باشید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Look-back notification: how do we assess effectiveness?

LA PRATIQUE QUI CONSISTE À PROCURER AUX RECEVEURS DE TRANSFUSION de nouveaux renseignements sur les risques découlant des transfusions qu’ils ont reçues il y a de nombreuses années suscite toujours la controverse. Dans ce numéro (page 149), Nancy Heddle et ses collaborateurs décrivent un programme d’identification rétrospective des patients pédiatriques qu’une transfusion a pu exposer au VIH ou...

متن کامل

A stochastic model for operating room planning under uncertainty and equipment capacity constraints

In the present economic context, the operating theater is considered as a critical activity in health care management. This paper describes a model for operating room (OR) planning under constraint of a unique equipment. At first level we schedule elective surgeries under the uncertainty of using a unique equipment. At the second level we consider emergency surgeries, and at the third le...

متن کامل

Changing the Way We Assess Leadership

Defense leaders face unprecedented challenges of accelerating change in a world without a Cold War. The technology explosion is forcing reduced cycle times as acquisition leaders lead the way to “better, faster, and cheaper.” Specific initiatives and reforms such as single process initiative, electrical combat/electronic data interchange (EC/EDI), cost as an independent variable, and increased ...

متن کامل

Capital Structure under Changing Uncertainty

We explain the puzzle of falling firm leverage during the period of decreasing aggregate volatility from 1970 – 2010 with a simultaneous increase in firm level volatility and varying degrees of firm access to public debt markets. By incorporating friction between public and private debt, a structural model where firms make financing policy decisions in presence of uncertainty can explain a sign...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Climate

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['2225-1154']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9120177